The AI Came Later
Five weeks ago my job changed. The brief was to lead an AI transformation across a listed property group with five business units.
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Two Hands on the Yield Curve
Last week the US Treasury started buying its own long bonds to push long yields down. This week the Fed chair said he may raise short rates.
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The Week They Bought Their Own Bonds
Three dates tell the story of this summer. In late July, Japan stepped in to buy yen, and for the first time in fifteen years, the US Treasury joined in.
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The 10:30 Train to Kinosaki
The last firework over Toyooka went off around ten at night. Thirty minutes later, on the station platform, I saw the city's real problem. The crowd was not leaving.
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The Number That Traps the Fed
Last Friday, the US economy reported something it was not supposed to do this year. It lost jobs.
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Nobody Films the Building
Hong Kong property advertising in the early 2000s was gilded. Chandeliers, gold leaf, imperial columns, a vocabulary of pure excess.
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Digital Gold Failed Its Exam
2026 handed the digital gold thesis exactly the conditions it had been asking for. Record sovereign debt, fiscal expansion, currency debasement, geopolitical shock.
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The Gold the Insiders Won't Talk About
There is a simple rule in markets: watch what the insiders do, not what they say.
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The Peg's Hidden Price
Last week, I wrote about the Japan lesson: countries with printing presses do not default. They debase.
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The Japan Lesson: How Countries Go Broke Without Defaulting
In How Countries Go Broke, Ray Dalio makes an observation that sounds almost paradoxical: countries with printing presses rarely default.
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Why History Points to a Property Low in Early 2027
Markets do not repeat, but they rhyme. Right now, one of the most reliable rhythms in modern market history is pointing toward a familiar destination: a low somewhere…
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Higher for Longer, Quieter for Now
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in June, its fourth consecutive hold. The headline was calm. The detail was not.
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Hong Kong's Quiet Advantage in the Next Downturn
In How Countries Go Broke, Ray Dalio makes a point that is easy to forget when markets are calm: the cycle always turns.
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The Night We Invited Homeowners to a Barbecue
There is a moment in every property project that no business school prepares you for.
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The Creative Who Learned to Sell
Property sales was never the plan. My plan was to make films. At university, while most advertising students were learning to write copy, my focus was on making…
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Hong Kong Property: Reading the Cycle Honestly
Hong Kong's property market is not just going through a bad patch. The problems run deeper than that, and based on the data, the recovery is still a long way off.
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PBSA: The Missing Part of the Conversation
45,179 university beds. 80,000+ non-local students. Everyone says the market is overheating. The numbers say otherwise.
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Hong Kong Property Looks Good. The Bond Market Disagrees.
Most people entering Hong Kong's property market right now are betting on one thing: that rates stay low. They may want to reconsider.
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It's Not AI. It's the Fed.
Open any newspaper and you will find the same story: artificial intelligence is stealing jobs, hollowing out industries, and leaving workers behind.
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